Analysis and Demand Forecast of Consumer Lithium Battery Market in 2024!

Part 1: Steady Growth in Traditional Consumer Electronics

1.1 Smartphones: The global shipment growth rate is expected to be 4% in 2024. According to IDC, the global smartphone shipment growth rate is expected to be 4% in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 2.3% from 2024 to 2028, among which the annual growth rate of AI smartphone shipments is 78%. Based on IDC's forecast, global smartphone shipments are expected to reach 1.21 billion units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%. The average annual shipment growth rate for global smartphones from 2024 to 2028 is expected to be 2.3%. In addition, IDC expects GenAI smartphones to reach a market share of 19% with shipments of 234 million units this year, a year-on-year increase of over 360%. By 2028, the shipment volume of GenAI smartphones is expected to reach 912 million units, with a CAGR of 78.4% from 2024 to 2028.

1.2 Laptop computers: It is expected that the global shipment growth rate in 2024 will be 2%, and the annual average shipment growth rate from 2024 to 2028 will be 2.4%. IDC anticipates that the CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) for the demand of laptops from individual consumers, public sectors, and enterprises from 2024 to 2028 will be 2.0%, 2.9%, and 2.8%, respectively, resulting in shipment volumes of 129 million units, 51 million units, and 112 million units for these three sectors in 2028. The proportion of total demand will be 44.1%, 17.6%, and 38.4%, respectively. Compared to 2024, the share of these three sectors remains generally stable overall.

1.3 Tablet PCs: The Product Renewal Cycle Drives a 22% Year-on-Year Increase in Global Shipments in 2024Q2

Global tablet shipments declined by 20.5% in 2023, but in 2024Q2, they achieved a 22.1% year-on-year increase.

Part 2: Emerging Markets Possess High Growth Potential

2.1 Wearable Devices: It is expected that the global shipment growth rate for wearable devices will be 10.5% in 2024. The shipment growth rate for AR/VR devices is expected to exceed 40% in 2024. In 2023, global AR/VR device shipments were 6.73 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 23.5%. IDC anticipates that with the improvement of the global macroeconomic conditions, and with the launch of Apple Vision Pro and other products by the end of the year, this year's AR/VR shipments will reach 9.7 million units, achieving a year-on-year growth rate of 44%.

It is projected that the CAGR for VR and AR shipments from 2024 to 2028 will be 29.2% and 87.1%, respectively. For VR devices, as consumers use them for activities beyond entertainment and as enterprises increase their demand for office and training purposes, the CAGR for VR device shipments from 2024 to 2028 is expected to be 29.2%, reaching 24.7 million units by 2028. Additionally, IDC forecasts that AR device shipments will grow from less than 1 million units in 2024 to 10.9 million units in 2028, with a CAGR of 87.1%.

IDC expects the growth rate for wearable device shipments to be 10.5% in 2024, with a CAGR of 3.6% from 2024 to 2028. As the global economy embarks on the path to recovery, wearable devices are expected to achieve further growth in 2024. IDC forecasts that shipments of wearable devices will reach 560 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. The market is projected to grow to 650 million units by 2028, with a CAGR of 3.6% from 2024 to 2028.

2.2 Portable Energy Storage: Rapid Development

From 2016 to 2021, the global compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for portable energy storage shipments and market size were 148% and 184%, respectively. According to the report data from the China Chemical and Physical Power Supply Industry Association, in terms of shipments, the global portable energy storage industry has increased from 52,000 units in 2016 to an expected 4.838 million units in 2021, with a CAGR of 147.6%. In terms of market size, it has increased from 60 million yuan in 2016 to 11.13 billion yuan in 2021, with a CAGR of 184.2%. Both shipments and market size have maintained high growth rates. According to the association's forecast, by 2026, global portable energy storage shipments and market size are expected to reach 31.1 million units and 88.23 billion yuan, respectively.

2.3 Electric Two-Wheelers: China is the largest market globally, and lithium battery electrification is a long-term trend. China's share of global lithium battery two-wheelers is 67%, but there is still significant room for improvement in the level of electrification. In 2022, China accounted for 67.2% of global shipments of lithium battery two-wheelers and scooters, and the electrification rate was only 15-20%, much lower than the levels in Europe, Japan, and South Korea. With the introduction of stricter emission reduction policies by various countries and the popularization of green travel concepts, it is expected that electric two-wheelers will replace traditional motorcycles as a long-term trend. Moreover, with improvements in the performance and cost of lithium batteries, the penetration rate of lithium battery two-wheelers is also expected to gradually increase.

2.4 Power Tools: North America and Europe are the largest markets. The global shipment volume and market size of power tools are expected to have a CAGR of 10.9% and 11.3% respectively from 2022 to 2026, according to EVTank's forecast. It is estimated that by 2026, the global shipment volume of power tools will reach 710 million units, and the market size will exceed 80 billion dollars, with CAGR of 10.9% and 11.3% from 2022 to 2026. Driven by the growth of the global power tools market, it is expected that by 2026, the global demand for lithium batteries for power tools will exceed 4 billion units.

2.5 Low-Altitude Economy: Subsequent spatial development has broad prospects. EVTank predicts that by 2035, the global eVTOL fleet will reach 26,000 units, thereby driving the global eVTOL cumulative market size to reach 160 billion dollars. In the future, as eVTOL plays a significant role in urban air traffic, tourism, logistics transportation, emergency rescue, police security, and military defense, its market size is expected to reach the trillion level. The rise of the eVTOL industry opens up new fields for the application of lithium batteries and next-generation battery technologies (such as solid-state batteries and lithium-metal batteries), creating new growth momentum. At the same time, advancements in battery technology can provide a solid foundation for the large-scale and commercial development of the eVTOL industry.

Forecast: Overall consumer battery demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.9%.

It is anticipated that by 2024, the demand for consumer lithium batteries will reach 123GWh, an increase of 8.8% year-over-year. By 2028, the demand for lithium batteries is expected to reach 165GWh, with a CAGR of 7.9% from 2023 to 2028.

• Smartphones: In 2023, shipments are expected to be 1.17 billion units. According to IDC forecasts, assuming a year-over-year growth of 4.0% in 2024, the CAGR from 2024 to 2028 will be 2.3%. Correspondingly, global smartphone shipments are projected to be 1.21 billion units in 2024 and 1.33 billion units in 2028. Assuming a battery capacity per unit of 13Wh for the iPhone 15 in 2023, with an annual growth rate of 2% from 2024 to 2028, the global lithium battery demand for smartphones will be 16.1GWh in 2024 and 19.0GWh in 2028.

• Laptops: In 2023, shipments are expected to be 260 million units. Assuming a year-over-year growth of 2.0% in 2024, with a CAGR from 2024 to 2028 of 2.4%, global laptop shipments are projected to be 265 million units in 2024 and 291 million units in 2028. Assuming a battery capacity per unit of 52.6Wh for the MacBook Air in 2023, with an annual growth rate of 2% from 2024 to 2028, the global lithium battery demand for laptops will be 14.2GWh in 2024 and 16.9GWh in 2028.

• Tablets: In 2023, shipments are expected to be 129 million units. Due to a 20.5% decline in global tablet shipments in 2023, it is assumed that there will be a 20% year-over-year increase in demand in 2024. Assuming a CAGR from 2024 to 2028 in line with smartphones at 2.3%, global tablet shipments are projected to be 154 million units in 2024 and 169 million units in 2028. Assuming a battery capacity per unit of 28.93Wh for the 11-inch iPad Air in 2023, with an annual growth rate of 2% from 2024 to 2028, the global lithium battery demand for tablets will be 4.55GWh in 2024 and 5.39GWh in 2028.

• Wearable devices: Global lithium battery demand for wearable devices is expected to be 1.8GWh in 2024 and 2.5GWh in 2028. AR/VR devices: According to IDC forecasts, assuming shipments of AR/VR devices to be 9.7 million units in 2024 and 35.6 million units in 2028, with a battery capacity per unit of 15.4Wh for the Apple Vision Pro in 2023, and an annual growth rate of 2% from 2024 to 2028, the global lithium battery demand for AR/VR devices will be 0.15GWh in 2024 and 0.60GWh in 2028.

• Other devices: Based on IDC forecasts, shipments for wearable devices are expected to be 560 million units in 2024 and 646 million units in 2028, with a CAGR of 3.64%. Assuming a growth rate of 3.64% annually from 2025 to 2028, the annual shipment figures can be calculated, allowing for the estimation of shipments for other devices within wearable devices from 2024 to 2028. Assuming a battery capacity per unit of 2.9Wh for the AirPods Max in 2023, with an annual growth rate of 2% from 2024 to 2028, the lithium battery demand for other devices will be 1.62GWh in 2024 and 1.95GWh in 2028.

• Electric two-wheelers: In 2021/2022, global shipments of electric two-wheelers and balance cars were 76.6/87 million units, with lithium battery penetration rates of 36.0% and 31.4%, respectively, resulting in shipments of 27.58/27.35 million units for lithium-powered two-wheelers and balance cars. Given the global lithium battery shipments for electric two-wheelers at 25.0/23.6GWh, the battery capacity per unit is 906.6/862.9Wh. For 2024-2027, global electric two-wheeler shipments are based on GGII forecasts, with 2028 figures calculated using the year-over-year growth rate of 7.8% in 2027; lithium battery penetration rates are assumed to increase by 1% annually starting in 2023; and the battery capacity per unit is assumed to increase by 2% annually starting in 2023. Thus, the global lithium battery demand for electric two-wheelers and balance cars will be 31.0GWh in 2024 and 51.4GWh in 2028.

• Other consumer batteries: This category includes portable energy storage, power tools, low-altitude economy, etc. The calculation method is to subtract the total shipments of other categories from the total consumer battery shipments. Assuming a 20% inventory for the consumer sector, the actual demand for the 113.2GWh shipped in the previous year is 94.3GWh, thus the lithium battery demand for other categories is 33.4GWh. Assuming an annual growth rate of 5.0%, the demand in 2028 will be 42.6GWh.

  
  

Overall: Multiplying the annual lithium battery demand by 1.2 gives the expected shipment volume. Therefore, it is anticipated that global lithium battery shipments will be 123.1GWh in 2024 and 165.5GWh in 2028, with a CAGR of 7.9% from 2023 to 2028.

From the official account: Guangdong Battery

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0P5fJ99g50it7NBtVJlhNQ